The only research commercialization OS where every claim is signed, cited, and graded — not asserted.
Three layers. Every claim is signed, cited, and graded — not asserted.
Every output carries an Ed25519 receipt.
Verify the founder pubkey → /.well-known/jwks.jsonEvery signal links to its source extract.
Inspect any claim → /signal-canvasHoldout Brier 0.27 (public gate 0.30).
Re-run the math → brier.ts on GitHubSix dimensions. Eight platforms. Dead ones stay listed.
| Platform | Real-time scoring | Signed evidence | Calibrated predictions | Full-text analysis | Founder-fit signals | API-first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ScienceToStartup |
Allen Institute for AI | · | · | · | · | · |
| · | · | · | · | · |
Connected Papers | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Elicit | · | · | · | · | · |
Consensus | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Scite | · | · | · | · |
Iris.ai | · | · | · | · | · |
Founder-curated, weekly snapshot. Capabilities verified against public docs and product surfaces. Last reviewed: 2026-05-16.
50 curated cs.AI papers scored against snapshot tables that existed on or before each paper's publication week. No current-state lookahead. Every score is reproducible.
Top-50 curated cs.AI papers spawned 35 companies — 14x the 5.0% base rate.
Baseline 5.0% (cited: https://www.cbinsights.com/research/startup-failure-rates/ · wayback fallback).
Headline multiplier: 14x · top_n 50 · spawned 35
| Paper | Published | Score @ pub-week | Current score | Lineage | Company | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1611.04500 | 2019-06-06 | 0.940top-decile | 1.000 | Direct spinout | Character.AI | scaled | source |
| 1909.13719 | 2014-06-10 | 0.927top-decile | 0.977 | Methodology | Anyscale | scaled | source |
| 2204.02311 |
Time-travel reproduced: every score is computed against the snapshot tables that existed on or before the paper's publication week — no current-state lookahead.
| 2017-06-22 |
| 0.925top-decile |
| 0.855 |
| Methodology |
| Snorkel AI |
| shutdown |
| source |
| 2005.14165 | 2018-06-23 | 0.917top-decile | 0.976 | Inspired | Mistral AI | scaled | source |
| 1502.03167 | 2021-06-08 | 0.899top-decile | 0.950 | Inspired | Owkin | acquired | source |
| 1503.02531 | 2018-06-14 | 0.896top-decile | 1.000 | Direct spinout | MosaicML | acquired | source |
| 1409.0473 | 2014-06-10 | 0.889top-decile | 0.775 | Direct spinout | Recursion | shutdown | source |
| 1502.03167 | 2020-06-25 | 0.887top-decile | 0.881 | Inspired | Adept AI | active | source |
| 1909.13719 | 2022-06-27 | 0.868top-decile | 1.000 | Inspired | Pony.ai | scaled | source |
| 1706.03762 | 2017-06-04 | 0.861top-decile | 0.769 | Inspired | Insilico Medicine | shutdown | source |
| 2204.02311 | 2014-06-19 | 0.854top-decile | 0.740 | Inspired | RelationalAI | shutdown | source |
| 1409.0473 | 2015-06-20 | 0.845top-decile | 1.000 | Inspired | Numenta | scaled | source |
| 1503.02531 | 2021-06-17 | 0.824top-decile | 0.898 | Methodology | Hugging Face | scaled | source |
| 1810.04805 | 2018-06-05 | 0.823top-decile | 0.897 | Inspired | Atomwise | scaled | source |
| 1502.03167 | 2018-06-05 | 0.810top-decile | 0.959 | Direct spinout | Adept AI | acquired | source |
| 1611.04500 | 2020-06-16 | 0.806top-decile | 0.912 | Direct spinout | OctoAI | scaled | source |
| 1706.03762 | 2015-06-11 | 0.804top-decile | 0.937 | Direct spinout | Insilico Medicine | scaled | source |
| 1503.02531 | 2020-06-07 | 0.799top-decile | 0.749 | Inspired | MosaicML | shutdown | source |
| 2005.14165 | 2016-06-03 | 0.792top-decile | 0.954 | Direct spinout | Mistral AI | acquired | source |
| 2005.14165 | 2017-06-13 | 0.775top-decile | 0.705 | Direct spinout | AI21 Labs | shutdown | source |
| 1611.04500 | 2014-06-19 | 0.768top-decile | 0.906 | Methodology | Character.AI | acquired | source |
| 2204.02311 | 2022-06-09 | 0.755top-decile | 0.818 | Direct spinout | Snorkel AI | scaled | source |
| 1706.03762 | 2018-06-14 | 0.750top-decile | 0.713 | Methodology | Cohere | active | source |
| 1611.04500 | 2021-06-26 | 0.746top-decile | 0.910 | Inspired | Character.AI | scaled | source |
| 1610.05755 | 2016-06-21 | 0.730top-decile | 0.899 | Methodology | Determined AI | scaled | source |
| 1503.02531 | 2017-06-04 | 0.710top-decile | 0.811 | Direct spinout | Hugging Face | scaled | source |
| 1409.0473 | 2018-06-23 | 0.707top-decile | 0.826 | Methodology | Recursion | scaled | source |
| 1610.05755 | 2021-06-08 | 0.705top-decile | 0.895 | Direct spinout | Determined AI | scaled | source |
| 1502.03167 | 2019-06-15 | 0.703top-decile | 0.792 | Direct spinout | Owkin | scaled | source |
| 1706.03762 | 2019-06-24 | 0.701top-decile | 0.583 | Methodology | Insilico Medicine | shutdown | source |
| 1409.0473 | 2016-06-03 | 0.696 | 0.774 | Inspired | Recursion | scaled | source |
| 1610.05755 | 2015-06-11 | 0.690 | 0.649 | Methodology | Petuum | active | source |
| 2204.02311 | 2016-06-12 | 0.686 | 0.565 | Methodology | RelationalAI | shutdown | source |
| 1810.04805 | 2019-06-15 | 0.676 | 0.855 | Methodology | Anthropic | scaled | source |
| 1909.13719 | 2015-06-20 | 0.675 | 0.690 | Methodology | Pony.ai | active | source |
| 1502.03167 | 2022-06-18 | 0.670 | 0.771 | Methodology | Adept AI | scaled | source |
| 1610.05755 | 2014-06-01 | 0.658 | 0.722 | Inspired | Determined AI | scaled | source |
| 2005.14165 | 2020-06-16 | 0.643 | 0.727 | Methodology | Mistral AI | scaled | source |
| 1706.03762 | 2016-06-21 | 0.618 | 0.718 | Inspired | Cohere | scaled | source |
| 1909.13719 | 2020-06-07 | 0.618 | 0.715 | Direct spinout | Pony.ai | scaled | source |
| 1810.04805 | 2017-06-22 | 0.615 | 0.814 | Inspired | Anthropic | scaled | source |
| 1810.04805 | 2016-06-12 | 0.609 | 0.560 | Direct spinout | Atomwise | shutdown | source |
| 1909.13719 | 2021-06-17 | 0.604 | 0.757 | Direct spinout | Anyscale | acquired | source |
| 1503.02531 | 2019-06-24 | 0.599 | 0.523 | Inspired | Hugging Face | shutdown | source |
| 2005.14165 | 2019-06-06 | 0.598 | 0.737 | Inspired | AI21 Labs | scaled | source |
| 1610.05755 | 2022-06-18 | 0.595 | 0.662 | Direct spinout | Petuum | acquired | source |
| 1611.04500 | 2022-06-09 | 0.587 | 0.684 | Methodology | OctoAI | acquired | source |
| 1409.0473 | 2017-06-13 | 0.573 | 0.574 | Methodology | Numenta | active | source |
| 1810.04805 | 2015-06-02 | 0.562 | 0.752 | Direct spinout | Anthropic | acquired | source |
| 2204.02311 | 2015-06-02 | 0.559 | 0.652 | Inspired | Snorkel AI | scaled | source |